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A small but growing problem

by Stephen Roberts | 24 Mar, 2014 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

For a more comprehensive round up of the week, listen to Stephen’s full report here.  Stronger housing activity is a key part of the accelerating Australian economic growth story through 2014 and 2015, helping to provide some direct offset to the negative impact...

Inflation surprise and its consequences

by Stephen Roberts | 28 Jan, 2014 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

For a more comprehensive round up of the week, listen to Stephen’s full report here.  Inflation was surprisingly high in Q4 2013 and allowing that Q3 was surprisingly high too, headline CPI inflation was much higher than expected throughout the second half of...

A quick note on Q4 CPI

by Stephen Roberts | 22 Jan, 2014 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

The Q4 CPI was much higher than expected, up 0.8% qoq (consensus 0.5%) after the 1.2% qoq result in Q3 which itself was higher than expected too. The two main underlying readings, the trimmed mean and weighted median readings were well above 0.6% consensus forecast at...

Economic Tide on the Turn

by Stephen Roberts | 13 Jan, 2014 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

For a more comprehensive round up of the week, listen to Stephen’s full report here. The economic tide is on the turn, but not the way the official family (Treasury and RBA) is expecting. The official view is that the dominant force influencing Australian...

CPI Surprise

by Stephen Roberts | 23 Oct, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

The Q3 CPI was higher than expected and up 1.2% q-o-q (consensus 0.8%) although the annual change is only 2.2% y-o-y. The main causes of the bigger than expected rise were sharp increases in components related to transport, +2.4% q-o-q (mostly petrol prices up 7.6%...
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