The Q4 CPI was much higher than expected, up 0.8% qoq (consensus 0.5%) after the 1.2% qoq result in Q3 which itself was higher than expected too. The two main underlying readings, the trimmed mean and weighted median readings were well above 0.6% consensus forecast at 0.9 %. Inflation at 2.7% yoy headline and 2.6% underlying is still not too worrying for the RBA, but it is running half a percentage point higher than would support the RBAs current forecasts. The bottom line is that rate cuts are definitely off the table, although rate hikes are still a little way off.
