by Stephen Roberts | 15 Jul, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
Australian GDP growth has slowed to around 2.5% annual pace in the first half of 2013, around half a percentage point below potential growth, as the sharp slowing in mining investment has started to bite. The issue is what is coming along to take up the slack as...
by Stephen Roberts | 11 Jun, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
The drivers of Australian economic growth are changing as the recently released Q1 GDP report attests, but the changeover is proving to be lumpy and at times a somewhat uncertain process. Uncertainty about the changeover is we believe a key reason why Australian risk...
by Stephen Roberts | 5 Jun, 2013 | Economics, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
Q1 GDP was a little softer than expected at +0.6% q-o-q (consensus, +0.8%) and up 2.5% y-o-y. The contribution to the 0.6% rise from household consumption was a little softer than expected (up 0.6% q-o-q contributing only 0.3pp to growth). Private capital spending was...
by Stephen Roberts | 3 Jun, 2013 | Economics, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
Retail sales rose in April by 0.2% mom, just shy of market expectations (+0.3%) and after a revised 0.4% fall in March. By category, the stronger elements of the retail sales report were clothing and footwear stores, +1.8% mom; food retailers +0.5%; and restaurants...
by Stephen Roberts | 30 May, 2013 | Economics, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
Q1 capex was weaker than expected, down by 4.7% qoq with mining capex down 6.2% qoq. Capex will detract about 0.6 pp from Q1 GDP, but there are other strong offsets from Q1 retail sales 0.6 pp and net exports 1.0pp. Q1 GDP ( out next Wednesday) is travelling around...
