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CPI Surprise

by Stephen Roberts | 23 Oct, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

The Q3 CPI was higher than expected and up 1.2% q-o-q (consensus 0.8%) although the annual change is only 2.2% y-o-y. The main causes of the bigger than expected rise were sharp increases in components related to transport, +2.4% q-o-q (mostly petrol prices up 7.6%...

Pity about the politicians

by Stephen Roberts | 14 Oct, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

Despite the impasse in Washington, the US economy continues to improve moderately, even though the partial government shutdown will trim GDP growth in Q4. Gauging how the US economy is travelling has been complicated by the absence of some official data (delayed until...

October Market Drivers

by Stephen Roberts | 8 Oct, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

Risk assets were stronger mostly through September assisted by further signs of moderate global economic expansion, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a surprise decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September policy meeting to delay...

Where are we?

by Stephen Roberts | 30 Sep, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

This is the first of our monthly reviews of the Australian economy containing also an update of our forecasts. Almost all regular economic readings produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Reserve Bank deal with the past, some the quite distant...

Not Strong Enough

by Stephen Roberts | 23 Sep, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

The main message from the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision not to start tapering its $US85 billion bond and mortgage buying program (QE) is one of concern that US economic growth is still not improving sustainably. To back up this point the Fed lowered its annual...
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