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Looking forwards and backwards

by Stephen Roberts | 16 Sep, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

The indicators of Australian economic activity are diverging more distinctly of late between sharply improving forward looking indicators being business and consumer sentiment, housing finance commitments, the shape of the yield curve, share market performance and...

Now for the Good News

by Stephen Roberts | 17 Jun, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

The Australian sharemarket rose strongly on Friday, breaking a run of almost continuous daily falls since late May. While it is too early to say whether the gloom from May has started to go away, there are good reasons in our view why risk assets should rebound over...

May Labour Force Figures

by Stephen Roberts | 13 Jun, 2013 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

Employment was a touch stronger than the market expected in May up 1,100 (consensus -10,000) although April was revised to +45,000 from +50,100. Employment growth averaging 23,000 a month through the first two months of Q2 is reasonably strong. The unemployment rate...

Downside Surprises

by Stephen Roberts | 15 Apr, 2013 | Economics, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts

Economic readings in the US and Australia surprised mostly on the downside of market expectations, but several special factors were in play during the capture period for the data which raise doubt about whether the softer data mark a weaker turn in either economy. We...

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