Market insights

Most Australian economists plus money and bond market traders expect the RBA will cut the cash rate by 25bps to 4.10% at the interest rate setting meeting on 17th/18th February. We are more cautious and see a rate cut as possible but by no means certain. The case for...

Risk assets mostly rose strongly through January, notwithstanding the occasional sharp slip on competition from China to the supremacy of US companies developing artificial intelligence and President Trump’s tariff announcements at month-end. Government bond yields...

Economic data released in January show that global economic growth likely finished 2024 on a firming note. The advance US Q4 GDP report is due later this week and is expected to show above trend growth running around 2.7% annualised pace. Europe’s Q4 GDP is out this...

While Australian inflation could track lower in the first half of 2025 signs are showing that it will start to rise again later in 2025 and in 2026. Those signs include the persistently tight labour market and current round of high wage negotiations, growth in...

Economic data released in December and early January show continuing above trend economic growth in the in the US, touch firmer economic indicators in China, Europe languishing and Australia showing signs of a lift in household spending. The fall in inflation through...