Market insights

Australia’s labour market strength is starting to fade. A weaker labour market will help to cap wage growth and should over time help to bring inflation back inside the RBA’s 2-3% target. A weaker labour market will pave the way for the RBA to start cutting the cash...

The RBA has made it plain at the first board meeting of 2024 that while the cash rate will be cut at some point, the first move is not imminent. According to the forecasts in the February Statement of Monetary Policy released at the same time as the RBA decision, the...

Most major stock markets rallied in January driven still by what seem to be incompatible views that growth is proving resilient, notably in the US, but central banks can pivot relatively soon and start cutting interest rates. Stock markets in China and Hong continued...

Firmer than expected global economic growth in January, slowing progress reducing inflation and still tight labour market conditions are causing central banks to try and hose down market expectations concerning how soon and how much official interest rates can be cut...

The RBA’s first interest rate decision of 2024 on 6th February could go either way, a pause at 4.35% for the cash rate, or a 25bps rate hike to 4.60%. Economic data released since the last RBA meeting in early December show spending on housing and consumption goods...

Financial assets mostly rallied in December, retraced some ground in the first week of 2024, but have recovered again since. Belief that central banks will start cutting official interest rates this year, beginning as early as March by the US Federal Reserve, is...