Market insights

Sluggish Australian GDP growth in Q1 (+0.2% q-o-q, +1.3% y-o-y) plus some evidence that households are preferring to save rather than spend early in Q2 provide some leeway for the RBA to cut the cash rate further over the next few months. But that leeway is not great...

Risk assets rose in May as US President Trump promised to delay and wind back some of the high trade tariffs announced in March. Evidence that the US economy contracted slightly in Q1 did not dent market optimism. The risk of a trade-war induced US recession remains...

Despite the changes announced last week to President Trump’s tariff program, delaying for three months the bigger tariff hikes for some and a reprieve for US IT companies from the super-sized retaliatory tariffs imposed on China, the US Administration remains wedded...

Risk assets fell in March and then fell much more in the first week of April after President Trump’s announcement of higher trade tariffs. The US tariffs could cause recession in the US combined with higher inflation. Financial markets are not accepting President...

Economic data released in March show economic growth threatening to decelerate in the in the US, but firmer economic indicators for the most part in China, Europe and Australia. The Trump Administration’s imposition of higher trade tariffs with the promise of more to...