Markets Overview
- ASX SPI 200 futures up 0.3% to 8,387.00
- Dow Average little changed at 41,859.09
- Aussie down 0.4% to 0.6410 per US$
- US 10-year yield fell 7.0bps to 4.5287%
- Australia 3-year bond yield fell 0.2 bps to 3.48%
- Australia 10-year bond yield rose 0.7 bps to 4.46%
- Gold spot down 0.6% to $3,294.55
- Brent futures down 1.3% to $64.07/bbl
Economic Events
- 11:00: (AU) Australia to Sell A$800 Million 2.75% 2028 Bonds
Asian equity futures edged higher Friday amid a rebound in Treasuries and the dollar in a sign of calming US fiscal fears that rocked markets earlier in the week. US stocks were little changed.
Contracts for Japanese and Australian shares rose, while those for Chinese benchmarks were steady. US equity-index futures advanced in early Asian trading after the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2% as big tech outperformed. The S&P 500 ended Thursday fractionally lower for its third daily decline.
Treasuries rallied across the curve Thursday, moderating the heavy selling from the prior session that was driven by US fiscal concerns. The 10-year yield fell seven basis points to 4.53% while the 30-year ended the day five basis points lower. An index of the dollar rose 0.2%.
“Market volatility has resurfaced amid renewed uncertainty surrounding trade policy and the fiscal outlook,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. “With bond yields elevated and tariff and budget risks in focus, this volatility may persist as investors monitor further developments in policy.”
The recent selling in Treasuries reflected worries about the US’s surging debt load, with anxiety being amplified after Moody’s Ratings on Friday downgraded the nation as a top-notch sovereign credit. Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s signature tax bill that narrowly passed the House would boost the nation’s already swelling deficit.
“Even if the inability to reduce the deficit in the US doesn’t lead to default, a large deficit still implies greater bond supply, and perhaps eventual inflation as the debt is monetized to avoid default,” said Thierry Wizman at Macquarie. “Either way, it makes nominal fixed-income instruments less attractive as long-term investments.”
The rebound in Treasuries Thursday was broadly supported by economic readings. US business activity and output expectations improved as trade-related anxiety eased even as price pressures continued to mount. In a sign of a still healthy labor market, initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest in four weeks. Elsewhere, existing home sales unexpectedly fell.
In Asia, economic data set for release includes inflation for Japan and Singapore and industrial production for Taiwan.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank could cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 if the Trump administration’s tariffs on US trading partners settle around 10%.
“If we can get the tariffs down closer to 10% and then that’s all sealed, done and delivered somewhere by July, then we’re in good shape for the second half of the year,” Waller said Thursday during an appearance on Fox Business.
Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court shielded the Fed from Donald Trump’s push to oust top officials at independent federal agencies, in a decision likely to quell concerns that the president might move to fire Jerome Powell.
In commodities, gold was steady early Friday at around $3,294 per ounce in Asian trading after declining Thursday. Oil fell for a third session Thursday as US stockpiles gained and OPEC+ members discussed another major production increase. Bitcoin traded close to the record high achieved Thursday, when the digital currency surpassed $111,000 for the first time.
