Markets Overview
- ASX SPI 200 futures down 0.3% to 8,145.00
- Dow Average down 0.6% to 42,934.23
- Aussie up 0.3% to 0.6246 per US$
- US 10-year yield rose 5.7bps to 4.2118%
- Australia 3-year bond yield fell 6.2 bps to 3.71%
- Australia 10-year bond yield fell 6 bps to 4.27%
- Gold spot up 0.8% to $2,916.50
- Brent futures down 0.7% to $71.15/bbl
Economic Events
- 08:45: (AU) RBA’s Hauser Speech
- 09:00: (AU) Feb. S&P Global Australia PMI Composite, prior 51.2
- 09:00: (AU) Feb. S&P Global Australia PMI Services, prior 51.4
- 11:00: (AU) Australia to Sell A$800 Million 4.25% 2036 Bonds
- 11:30: (AU) 4Q GDP YoY, est. 1.3%, prior 0.8%
- 11:30: (AU) 4Q GDP SA QoQ, est. 0.6%, prior 0.3%
Stocks rose in late hours after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested there may be some tariff relief after a selloff that shook markets around the globe.
Frantic moves lashed markets all day, both up and down, as sentiment shifted quickly amid uncertainty around Donald Trump’s trade war. US stocks were particularly volatile, first plunging, then recovering, and falling anew at session’s end. After the close, word Trump was considering lowering levies on Mexico and Canada sparked a late-session rally, with a $611 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) signaling a rebound.
The Trump administration could announce a pathway for tariff relief on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by North America’s free trade agreement as soon as Wednesday, Lutnick said. He added that the tariffs would likely land “somewhere in the middle” with Trump “moving with the Canadians and Mexicans, but not all the way.”
From New York to London and Tokyo, equities sank Tuesday — with the S&P 500 returning to pre-election levels on concerns about the impacts of a trade war on the global economy. The US imposed the largest set of new tariffs in nearly a century, slapping levies on a broad swath of goods from China, Canada and Mexico that spurred swift reprisals.
The moves — before President Donald Trump’s address Tuesday night to Congress — mark a new phase in his broadening economic and diplomatic reset of America’s place in the world. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent projected confidence in the tariff plans — even as the stock market slumped.
If Wall Street learned one thing during Trump’s first term as president, it’s that the stock market is a way he keeps score. The theory was that the president’s penchant for using equities as a report card meant any policy that rattled markets would cause him to revise the plans. But with stocks tanking, investment pros are starting to question if there’s a “Trump Put” after all.
“Where’s the Trump Put,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”
To Nancy Tengler at Laffer Tengler Investments, while it’s “always excruciating” to be in the middle of a market correction — this is essentially what she think is currently happening. The S&P 500 has now dropped about 6% from its record high.
“This time, of course, it’s spurred by the tariffs,” she noted. “And I think we have to analyze not just what the tariffs will be, but how long we think they’re going to last. If it is short lived, this is just an opportunity to buy stocks for the long term.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.2%. The Nasdaq 100 lost 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 1.6%. A gauge of the Magnificent Seven megacaps dropped 0.7%. The Russell 2000 slipped 1.1%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose nine basis points to 4.24%. A dollar gauge slid 0.6%.
