Markets Overview
- ASX SPI 200 futures up 0.6% to 8,196.00
- Dow Average up 0.9% to 42,156.17
- Aussie up 0.8% to 0.6636 per US$
- US 10-year yield rose 2.8bps to 4.3130%
- Australia 3-year bond yield rose 3.4 bps to 4.08%
- Australia 10-year bond yield rose 0.4 bps to 4.56%
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,740.75
- Brent futures up 0.6% to $75.51/bbl
Economic Events
Stocks climbed Tuesday while Treasuries were mixed and the dollar fell in the last trading session before votes are tallied in a US presidential race with far-reaching implications for the economy. Neither the size of the moves nor volume indicated strong conviction on the outcome of a contest that polls continue to put at a dead heat.
The world’s largest tech companies led gains, with the S&P 500 up 1.2% and a measure of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps climbing 1.8%. The rally was partly fueled by a surge in Palantir Technologies Inc. after the company signaled “unwavering demand” for artificial intelligence. Nvidia Corp. became the largest company in the world, surpassing Apple Inc. Shorter-term Treasuries underperformed after a solid report on US services.
Election-day markets were notably calm. Earlier moves that bore the imprint of positioning known informally as the Trump trade, including a runup in Treasury rates and the Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. stock, unwound as the session progressed, though crypto held on to gains. The broad rally in stocks was consistent with votes past: the S&P 500 has gained on nine of the last 11 election days with a median return of 0.8%, according to Carson Group strategist Ryan Detrick.
“Regardless of who wins tonight or whenever we get those results, it effectively is going to be a surprise,” Cameron Dawson at NewEdge Wealth told Bloomberg Television. “Those polls are so very tight, which means that it could be volatility-inducing event.”
Investors are reluctant to commit to sizable positions until at least the release of the initial exit polls, said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury.
“The US election rests on a knife-edge as Americans head to the polls, with the outcome now seemingly anyone’s guess,” he said.
Wall Street was preparing for a long night of potentially contentious ballot counting and sharp swings no matter the outcome. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said there’s a possibility of a burst of volatility in the aftermath of the election, but also pointed to the resilient US economic backdrop as likely to support equities in the long run.
The team of strategists led by Andrea Ferrario said there’s just an 18% chance of a bear market in the next 12 months — even when taking into account the risks posed by Tuesday’s presidential election. “Equities should be able to digest higher bond yields as long as they are driven by better growth,” the Goldman strategists wrote in a note.
Markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on Thursday, and Jerome Powell’s press conference, where he’ll give details on the path for interest rates.
“The market is longing for the election to be over so that the focus can return to earnings and monetary policy,” said Susana Cruz, a strategist at Panmure Liberum.
All of that adds up to a market primed for volatility this week. Options data suggests a 1.8% move in either direction for the S&P 500 on Wednesday, according to Citigroup’s head of equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser.
