Markets Overview

  • ASX SPI 200 futures little changed at 8,072.00
  • Aussie up 0.4% to 0.6791 per US$
  • Australia 3-year bond yield rose 5.4 bps to 3.61%
  • Australia 10-year bond yield rose 4.4 bps to 4.01%
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,499.51
  • Brent futures up 0.8% to $77.52/bbl

Economic Events

  • 11:30: (AU) 2Q Net Exports of GDP, est. 0.6, prior -0.9
  • 11:30: (AU) 2Q BoP Current Account Balance, est. -A$5b, prior -A$4.9b

Global equities hovered near record highs on Monday as investors prepared for what’s typically considered the most challenging month for stocks.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index pared most losses from earlier in the session after closing at an all-time high on Friday. Volkswagen AG rose 1.3% after the automaker said it’s considering unprecedented factory closures in Germany, while Rightmove Plc surged 27% in London on the back of takeover interest from Rupert Murdoch’s REA Group Ltd.

US equity futures were little changed. The dollar edged higher after its worst month this year, while cash Treasuries were closed for the US Labor Day holiday. Mexican stocks gained while Brazilian assets retreated.

Historically, September has been a particularly poor month for stocks over the past four years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Wall Street’s fear gauge – the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX – has risen each September since 2021.

The trend could persist, especially with the upcoming US jobs report on Friday, which will provide crucial insights into how quickly or slowly the Federal Reserve might cut rates and as the US election campaign gets into full swing. Traders are pricing the US easing cycle will begin this month, with a roughly one-in-four chance of a 50 basis-point cut, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“I think the market is pretty well versed with what it thinks is going to happen — there will be some kind of cut,” Fiona Boal, global head of equities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, told Bloomberg Television. “As we move through autumn, we will see the VIX move more to thinking about the markets, thinking about political issues.”