Markets Overview
- ASX SPI 200 futures up 0.3% to 7,084.00
- Dow Average up 0.7% to 34,346.90
- Aussie down 0.2% to 0.6407 per US$
- U.S. 10-year yield little changed at 4.2354%
- Australia 3-year bond yield rose 4.1 bps to 3.85%
- Australia 10-year bond yield rose 4.6 bps to 4.16%
- Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,914.96
- Brent futures up 1.3% to $84.48/bbl
Economic Events
- 11:30: (AU) July Retail Sales MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.8%
Asian stocks look poised to follow US equities with modest gains Monday after Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve would “proceed carefully” on whether to raise interest rates again, while signaling policy will remain tighter for longer.
Most major currencies were little changed in early Asian trading, with the yen steadying after sliding to its weakest this year on Friday after the Fed chief’s remarks. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda didn’t comment on foreign-exchange rates but said price growth remains slower than the central bank’s goal.
The euro was unchanged and largely resistant to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s vow to set borrowing costs as high as needed and leave them there until inflation is in check. The yuan will remain in focus amid China’s campaign to prop-up the currency.
Equity futures for Japan, Hong Kong and Australia
Equity futures for Japan, Hong Kong and Australia all pointed to small gains of less than 1% following the S&P 500’s 0.7% advance Friday, when it capped its best week since July. US equity futures opened higher Monday.
Investors in Chinese equities have countervailing forces to weigh, with data on Sunday showing a decline in industrial profits eased while deflation risks remain an overhang. China also announced measures to support the equities market, lowering the stamp duty on stock trades for the first time since 2008 and pledging to slow the pace of initial public offerings.
While Treasuries were little changed during Powell’s long-awaited speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, yields pushed up after it concluded as the longer-for-higher rates message appeared to sink in. The yield on two-year bonds, which are highly sensitive to the Fed’s policy shifts, are comfortably above 5% while the rate on 10-year Treasuries fluctuated near 4.2%.
Other News
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the department he oversees is closely watching slowing growth in China, which he described as the greatest risk to Australia’s economy alongside elevated interest rates.
Chalmers pointed to deflation, declining exports, a slump in China’s property market and pockets of concern within its banking sector as among the challenges facing Australia’s largest trading partner.
“I share the pretty substantial concerns people have voiced about the Chinese economy,” Chalmers said in a Sunday interview on Sky News Australia. “It is concerning to see the weakness, the softness in recent weeks and months in the Chinese economy because it has obvious implications for us here in Australia.”
The Treasurer said official forecasts for the Australian economy released with the latest budget in May predicted a deceleration in growth, but those expectations could weaken further if China substantially slowed. However, the deteriorating outlook for China was unlikely to push Australia into recession, he said.
“The two biggest challenges I think to that growth outlook are what is happening in China — that is a big part of that story — but also the lagged impact of all of those interest rate rises in the system,” Chalmers said. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged for a second time earlier this month following 400 basis points of tightening since May last year.
Economists at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays Plc are among those that see China missing its official growth target of around 5% this year, as pressures mount within the economy. China has fallen short of delivering broad stimulus but has instead opted for targeted support measures.
Earlier this month, China cut its main policy rate in a surprise move that marked the biggest reduction in the one-year loan rate since 2020. Last week, the country eased mortgage policies to spur growth in the property sector. These and other efforts form part of a patchwork of announcements in recent months designed to spur activity across a range of sectors from property to consumer goods and the auto industry.
Chalmers said July retail sales figures due for release Monday and inflation data on Wednesday would give further indication of the health of Australia’s economy but warned the measures were volatile.
“These monthly readings are notoriously volatile, they bounce around and surprise you in either direction but the overall direction of travel is pretty clear — our economy is weakening as a consequence of what is happening in the world and what has happened with interest rates.”
(Bloomberg)
