by Stephen Roberts | 11 Jun, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The Australian economic and interest rate outlook is little changed from what seemed likely back in late-April before going on leave. Economic growth has slowed, but not to stalling point with real GDP up 0.1% q-o-q in Q1 reducing annual growth to 1.1% y-o-y from an...
by Stephen Roberts | 29 Apr, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Economic data released in April again showed most major economies close to recession or experiencing slow growth. Inflation remained sticky and above the targets of most central banks. The difficulty reducing inflation towards target became more pronounced in the US...
by Stephen Roberts | 22 Apr, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Several economic data reports and announcements over the next three weeks will determine how long it will be before the RBA can consider cutting the cash rate. The March labour force report last week showed still tight labour market conditions and points towards no...
by Stephen Roberts | 15 Apr, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Key economic reports relating to labour market conditions and inflation are due over the next two weeks and what they show will determine whether any hope remains that the RBA can start to cut the cash rate in late 2024. Our view is that the odds have moved against a...
by Stephen Roberts | 8 Apr, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The timetable for the RBA’s initial rate cut has turned into an endless hurdle race where the race is getting both longer and some of the hurdles along the way are getting higher. Using the guide provided by the RBA when its forecasts were updated last in early...
by Stephen Roberts | 2 Apr, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The rally in risk assets continued strongly again in March with almost all major share and credit markets making gains. Economic indicators released in March in the US and Australia were mostly quite firm reducing the likelihood of recession soon. Inflation has fallen...
