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A High Bar

A High Bar

by Stephen Roberts | 22 Jul, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

In two weeks, the RBA holds its August interest rate setting meeting and there is an active debate about whether the RBA will leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% or will hike 25bps to 4.60%. Our view is that the bar is set very high for the RBA to consider another...
Is the Housing Tide Turning?

Is the Housing Tide Turning?

by Stephen Roberts | 15 Jul, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

Rising prices and rising rent feature in most forecasts of housing in Australia’s capital cities, Melbourne excepted. The main driving forces for the forecasts are the under-supply of housing relative to strong demand driven by population growth and a range of other...
Cost of Living Crisis Dissected

Cost of Living Crisis Dissected

by Stephen Roberts | 8 Jul, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

The rising cost of living has become a big, if not the biggest, concern for most Australian households. The usual measure of the rising cost of living is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the most important version of the CPI, at least as far as the RBA is concerned,...
Market Drivers

Market Drivers

by Stephen Roberts | 1 Jul, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

What promised to be another strong month for risk assets in June driven by hope of official interest rate cuts was marred for some in Europe by rising concern about the strong electoral performance of far-right political parties threatening to turn back further the...
Economic Roundup

Economic Roundup

by Stephen Roberts | 24 Jun, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

Economic data released in June showed weak global economic growth, still tight labour markets and patchy progress reducing inflation. Some central banks cut their official interest rates for the first time in the current high interest rate cycle, notably the European...
A soft landing on a narrow runway

A soft landing on a narrow runway

by Stephen Roberts | 17 Jun, 2024 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

Analogies abound as the RBA Governor and the Federal Treasurer try to explain Australia’s economic outlook given current economic policy settings. The narrow and narrowing path getting inflation down sustainably within 2-3% range is a popular analogy at the RBA, while...
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