Key economic reports relating to labour market conditions and inflation are due over the next two weeks and what they show will determine whether any hope remains that the RBA can start to cut the cash rate in late 2024. Our view is that the odds have moved against a...
The timetable for the RBA’s initial rate cut has turned into an endless hurdle race where the race is getting both longer and some of the hurdles along the way are getting higher. Using the guide provided by the RBA when its forecasts were updated last in early...
The rally in risk assets continued strongly again in March with almost all major share and credit markets making gains. Economic indicators released in March in the US and Australia were mostly quite firm reducing the likelihood of recession soon. Inflation has fallen...
Economic data released in March showed most major economies close to recession or experiencing slow growth. US growth remained a stronger outlier to the mostly soft growth story internationally and showed signs of stickier inflation than most. Australia stayed in the...
The focus this week in Australia is the RBA’s policy meeting today and tomorrow. The cash rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.35% and the main point of interest is whether the RBA is still relatively hawkish hinting that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out,...
Australian economic growth and inflation have been moderating since early-to-mid 2023 and the call is growing louder (unwarranted in our view) for the Government and the RBA to take policy action to stem and reverse the tide. According to the latest quarterly (Q4...
