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Watch the RBA’s Economic Forecasts

Watch the RBA’s Economic Forecasts

by Stephen Roberts | 17 Feb, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

The RBA interest rate setting committee is meeting today and tomorrow and most economists and the market expect the cash rate to be cut by 25bps to 4.10% but with an accompanying message from RBA Governor Gillian Bullock indicating uncertainty about when another cut...
February Rate Cut Possible but Not Certain

February Rate Cut Possible but Not Certain

by Stephen Roberts | 10 Feb, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

Most Australian economists plus money and bond market traders expect the RBA will cut the cash rate by 25bps to 4.10% at the interest rate setting meeting on 17th/18th February. We are more cautious and see a rate cut as possible but by no means certain. The case for...
Market Drivers

Market Drivers

by Stephen Roberts | 3 Feb, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

Risk assets mostly rose strongly through January, notwithstanding the occasional sharp slip on competition from China to the supremacy of US companies developing artificial intelligence and President Trump’s tariff announcements at month-end. Government bond yields...
Economic Roundup

Economic Roundup

by Stephen Roberts | 28 Jan, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

Economic data released in January show that global economic growth likely finished 2024 on a firming note. The advance US Q4 GDP report is due later this week and is expected to show above trend growth running around 2.7% annualised pace. Europe’s Q4 GDP is out this...
Distant Signs of Higher Inflation and Interest Rates

Distant Signs of Higher Inflation and Interest Rates

by Stephen Roberts | 20 Jan, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

While Australian inflation could track lower in the first half of 2025 signs are showing that it will start to rise again later in 2025 and in 2026. Those signs include the persistently tight labour market and current round of high wage negotiations, growth in...
Economic Roundup

Economic Roundup and Market Drivers

by Stephen Roberts | 14 Jan, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary

Economic data released in December and early January show continuing above trend economic growth in the in the US, touch firmer economic indicators in China, Europe languishing and Australia showing signs of a lift in household spending. The fall in inflation through...
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