by Stephen Roberts | 14 Nov, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The key messages from the downside US CPI surprise in October are that their annual inflation rate has moved past the peak for this cycle and can be expected to decline further through to mid-2023. Two near-term disinflationary forces are in play in the US, softer...
by Stephen Roberts | 7 Nov, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
In October and early November, financial markets toyed with the idea that central banks may be approaching the end of the rate hiking cycle fostering erratic rallies in several major share and bond markets. These rallies seem to be built on shaky ground given that the...
by Stephen Roberts | 31 Oct, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The latest inflation readings in most major economies continued to surprise on the high-side of expectations, but financial markets are starting to look towards when central banks may pivot and hike interest rates at a less aggressive pace. Essentially, the view that...
by Stephen Roberts | 24 Oct, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
What a difference 7 months can make when framing an Australian Budget. The international and local economic outlook have changed considerably, and not in line with anyone’s best forecasts back in March. When the previous government delivered its pre-election Budget in...
by Stephen Roberts | 17 Oct, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Inflation is stickier and higher than expected in the US, according to the September CPI data released last week. The CPI was up 0.4% month-on-month, 8.2% y-o-y with the core CPI excluding food and energy prices up 0.6% m-o-m, 6.6% y-o-y. Rising service prices are...
by Stephen Roberts | 4 Oct, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The recessionary consequences of central banks fighting to contain high inflation loomed large again in September causing most financial assets to sell off. The US Federal Reserve hiked another 75bps in the month taking the Funds rate up to 3.25% and indicated higher...
