by Stephen Roberts | 20 Feb, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Our current view about the cash rate outlook is based on the economic forecasts produced by the RBA in its latest (February) Monetary Policy Statement. These economic forecasts seem consistent with two or three more 25bps cash rate hikes taking the cash rate to a peak...
by Stephen Roberts | 13 Feb, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The message from the RBA’s interest rate decision last week and subsequent commentaries are that inflation although past its peak will remain too high for comfort through 2023 and 2024. Community inflation expectations, although still anchored at present, are at risk...
by Stephen Roberts | 6 Feb, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Financial markets rallied in January and early February assisted by signs that inflation has peaked and belief that central banks are close to the end of their rate hiking programs. Earlier concern about higher interest rates toppling economies in to recession turned...
by Stephen Roberts | 30 Jan, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Recession feared previously to start as early as the current northern hemisphere winter starting in Europe and in the US not long after has been delayed by warm winter weather in Europe containing energy prices, optimism that central banks are near the end of their...
by Stephen Roberts | 23 Jan, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Our article headlines last and this week both come with question marks reflecting the degree of uncertainty surrounding recent changes in economic numbers and changes in financial market sentiment in response. In early 2023 much of what was concerning in the late...
by Stephen Roberts | 16 Jan, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Annual inflation is past its peak in the US and is moderating quite sharply. Financial markets are looking with some justification from recent US inflation and wage data towards the end of the Federal Reserve’s current rate hiking cycle with smaller 25bps rate hikes...
