by Stephen Roberts | 22 May, 2023 | Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The RBA is getting close to, or may even be at, the top of its current rate hiking cycle based on some of the recent economic data. The April labour force report showing a 4,300 fall in total employment and the unemployment rate lifting to 3.7% plus the earlier report...
by Stephen Roberts | 15 May, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
On Wednesday and Thursday this week two data releases will influence what the RBA does next with the cash rate. At the next RBA policy meeting in early June and in the interest rate setting meetings for several months beyond the two options that the RBA has are to...
by Stephen Roberts | 8 May, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Last week the RBA produced its latest set of economic forecasts in the quarterly Statement on Monetary Statement (MPS). This week, Commonwealth Treasury’s latest economic forecasts will be revealed when Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, brings down the 2023-24 Budget. Both...
by Stephen Roberts | 1 May, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Government bond markets and major stock markets maintained different outlooks for the global economy in April. Bond yields sitting below current official interest rates and the inverted US bond yield curve point to recession ahead and of an order that will force...
by Stephen Roberts | 24 Apr, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
In April economic indicators showed moderating global economic growth for the most part, but with inflation still high enough to concern most central banks. China was an exception with growth gathering pace, but with low inflation. The softening in economic activity...
by Stephen Roberts | 17 Apr, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Writing about the outlook beyond the RBA’s rate pause last week we considered that the various opposing factors influencing the cash rate outlook favoured a lengthy pause at 3.60%. Our view required continuing evidence of soft growth in household spending and...
