by Stephen Roberts | 24 Jul, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The June monthly CPI and the Q2 CPI out this week will influence whether the RBA pauses again or hikes at the next policy meeting on 1st August. Outcomes around the consensus forecasts of 5.5% y-o-y for the June CPI and 6.2% y-o-y for the Q2 CPI while showing that...
by Stephen Roberts | 17 Jul, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The Treasurer’s decision to not extend RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s tenure beyond its mid-September end-date and to appoint Governor the current Deputy Governor, Michelle Bullock, is likely to make no difference to how much further the cash rate will rise in Australia....
by Stephen Roberts | 3 Jul, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Risk assets had a strong month in June undeterred by rising official interest rates and higher government bond yields. Economic data releases in the US during the month show an economy still a long way from recession fostering hope that even if interest rates have a...
by Stephen Roberts | 26 Jun, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
In June central banks confirmed that they remain determined to get high and sticky inflation down to their targets even as growth weakens, and some economies enter recession. While the US Federal Reserve paused at its June policy meeting it indicated that two more...
by Stephen Roberts | 13 Jun, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The RBA’s June decision to hike the cash rate another 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, plus a subsequent speech by the RBA Governor Lowe focusing on the stickiness of inflation and the Q1 2023 GDP release showing a record annual fall in productivity all point to the...
by Stephen Roberts | 5 Jun, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Most central banks indicated in May that it is too early to declare that they have done enough to bring inflation down to their respective targets, notwithstanding signs of slowing economic growth and a government debt ceiling scare in the United States that could...
