by Stephen Roberts | 27 Nov, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Economic releases in November show signs of moderating economic activity in the US and Europe as well as lower inflation. Central bankers continue to warn that their task of returning inflation to their targets will still take time and will require a lengthy period of...
by Stephen Roberts | 20 Nov, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
We wrote last week that the RBA will hike rates again, most likely in February rather than at their next meeting in December. A December rate hike is back in play, however, after reports last week of a still very tight labour market in October and annual wage growth...
by Stephen Roberts | 13 Nov, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The changes to the RBA’s economic forecasts in the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement last Friday show both why it needed to hike the cash rate last week and why it may need to hike again. The RBA revised higher forecasts of GDP and inflation and lower forecast...
by Stephen Roberts | 6 Nov, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Risk assets weakened again in October amid the possibilty of an escalating war in the Middle East as well as concern that central banks may need to hike rates further. The rate hike concerns were alleviated to some extent late in the month as several major central...
by Stephen Roberts | 30 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Last week we took the signs of easing labour market conditions contained in the September labour force report as reason to expect the RBA to stay on hold at its next interest rate setting meeting on 7 November. What a difference a week can make in economics. The Q3...
by Stephen Roberts | 23 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
A persistently tight labour market is a key concern for central banks as they try to contain inflation. Tight labour market conditions provide bargaining power to workers potentially allowing wages to be bid up to cover inflation and more, adding to the likelihood...
