by Stephen Roberts | 30 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Last week we took the signs of easing labour market conditions contained in the September labour force report as reason to expect the RBA to stay on hold at its next interest rate setting meeting on 7 November. What a difference a week can make in economics. The Q3...
by Stephen Roberts | 23 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
A persistently tight labour market is a key concern for central banks as they try to contain inflation. Tight labour market conditions provide bargaining power to workers potentially allowing wages to be bid up to cover inflation and more, adding to the likelihood...
by Stephen Roberts | 16 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Analysts are split between whether official interest rates in most major economies, including in Australia, have peaked or need to be tweaked a little higher. The US Federal Reserve in the minutes of its last policy meeting indicated that inflation and recession risks...
by Stephen Roberts | 9 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The cash rate remains on uneasy pause at 4.10% is the verdict after the first monetary policy meeting presided over by new RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock. Essentially the economic backdrop to the rate decision has not changed. In the words of the new Governor and...
by Stephen Roberts | 2 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Risk assets weakened again in September as central banks reaffirmed that interest rates would need to stay higher for longer. Bond markets continued to build the growing possibility that official interest rates are likely to stay at least as high as they are currently...
by Stephen Roberts | 11 Sep, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Australia is yet to breach the two consecutive quarters of GDP that defines conventionally a recession, but other indicators such as GDP per head, falling nominal GDP and weak household disposable income are all flashing recession-like. The soft components in the Q2...
