by Stephen Roberts | 11 Dec, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Australia’s real GDP growth rate is slowing and real GDP per capita is already in technical recession with back-to-back quarterly falls in Q2 and Q3 2023 according to the Q3 GDP release last week. Data relating to household disposable income contained in the same...
by Stephen Roberts | 4 Dec, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Risk assets mostly rallied and sharply in November based on views that the US economy may experience a soft landing and that the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks may have finished hiking interest and could start to reduce interest rates before long....
by Stephen Roberts | 27 Nov, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Economic releases in November show signs of moderating economic activity in the US and Europe as well as lower inflation. Central bankers continue to warn that their task of returning inflation to their targets will still take time and will require a lengthy period of...
by Stephen Roberts | 20 Nov, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
We wrote last week that the RBA will hike rates again, most likely in February rather than at their next meeting in December. A December rate hike is back in play, however, after reports last week of a still very tight labour market in October and annual wage growth...
by Stephen Roberts | 13 Nov, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The changes to the RBA’s economic forecasts in the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement last Friday show both why it needed to hike the cash rate last week and why it may need to hike again. The RBA revised higher forecasts of GDP and inflation and lower forecast...
by Stephen Roberts | 6 Nov, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Risk assets weakened again in October amid the possibilty of an escalating war in the Middle East as well as concern that central banks may need to hike rates further. The rate hike concerns were alleviated to some extent late in the month as several major central...
