by Stephen Roberts | 23 Jun, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The global economic outlook is becoming more volatile and challenging. Global growth will face a stiff headwind from President Trump’s imposition of higher tariffs on US imports. Where many of those tariff changes will settle is still in the air with unreliable...
by Stephen Roberts | 16 Jun, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Uncertainty is rising about the global economic outlook after the missile strikes traded between Israel and Iran over the past week. The worsening tension in the Middle East has pushed up oil and gold prices, started to disrupt sea and air travel in the area and has...
by Stephen Roberts | 10 Jun, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Sluggish Australian GDP growth in Q1 (+0.2% q-o-q, +1.3% y-o-y) plus some evidence that households are preferring to save rather than spend early in Q2 provide some leeway for the RBA to cut the cash rate further over the next few months. But that leeway is not great...
by Stephen Roberts | 2 Jun, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Risk assets rose in May as US President Trump promised to delay and wind back some of the high trade tariffs announced in March. Evidence that the US economy contracted slightly in Q1 did not dent market optimism. The risk of a trade-war induced US recession remains...
by Stephen Roberts | 14 Apr, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Despite the changes announced last week to President Trump’s tariff program, delaying for three months the bigger tariff hikes for some and a reprieve for US IT companies from the super-sized retaliatory tariffs imposed on China, the US Administration remains wedded...
by Stephen Roberts | 7 Apr, 2025 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Risk assets fell in March and then fell much more in the first week of April after President Trump’s announcement of higher trade tariffs. The US tariffs could cause recession in the US combined with higher inflation. Financial markets are not accepting President...
