by Stephen Roberts | 12 Dec, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
At some point the RBA will become confident that the forces driving above-target inflation are weakening enough to bring annual inflation back within 2-3% range over the next two years or so. Even though the RBA has delivered major monetary tightening over the past...
by Stephen Roberts | 5 Dec, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Bond, credit and share markets rose further in November amid rising hopes that inflation has peaked and that central banks may be able to moderate remaining rate hikes and perhaps avoid recession. Financial markets were encouraged by US, European and Australian...
by Stephen Roberts | 28 Nov, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Most leading economic indicators and rising central banks’ official interest rates point towards global recession, but the latest still firm household spending and labour market data in the US, Europe and Australia are still showing resilience. Annual inflation...
by Stephen Roberts | 21 Nov, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The Australian labour market was still running hot in Q3 and in early October according to the latest wage price index and labour force reports. Annual wage growth accelerated from 2.6% y-o-y in Q2 to 3.1% in Q3, while total employment in October rose by 32,200 and...
by Stephen Roberts | 14 Nov, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The key messages from the downside US CPI surprise in October are that their annual inflation rate has moved past the peak for this cycle and can be expected to decline further through to mid-2023. Two near-term disinflationary forces are in play in the US, softer...
by Stephen Roberts | 7 Nov, 2022 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
In October and early November, financial markets toyed with the idea that central banks may be approaching the end of the rate hiking cycle fostering erratic rallies in several major share and bond markets. These rallies seem to be built on shaky ground given that the...
