by Stephen Roberts | 3 Apr, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Government bond yields fell sharply in March reflecting a marked change in market view towards believing central banks’ official interest rates are at, or close to their peak, and will be cut two or three times over the next year. Falling bond yields are heralding...
by Stephen Roberts | 27 Mar, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
In March, indications of slowing global economic remained limited. High inflation continued to ease slowly. Problems emerged at three US banks and Credit Suisse in Switzerland. Financial markets worried about a potential systemic banking problem in the making, but...
by Stephen Roberts | 14 Mar, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
US and Australian economic prospects are diverging and that may require the Federal Reserve (Fed) and RBA to deliver different official interest rate outcomes. To some extent, this has already occurred with the Fed having pushed its funds rate up to 4.75% and still...
by Stephen Roberts | 6 Mar, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Changing views about how high interest rates might rise caused bond yields to lift in February and mixed results for major share markets. US economic readings were stronger than expected for the most part and reduction in inflation was less pronounced than expected...
by Stephen Roberts | 27 Feb, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The global economic growth outlook has brightened in January and February making reducing inflation a more challenging task for central banks. In the US the tight labour market and growth in real household income are priming spending and renewed optimism about the US...
by Stephen Roberts | 20 Feb, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Our current view about the cash rate outlook is based on the economic forecasts produced by the RBA in its latest (February) Monetary Policy Statement. These economic forecasts seem consistent with two or three more 25bps cash rate hikes taking the cash rate to a peak...
