by Stephen Roberts | 8 May, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Last week the RBA produced its latest set of economic forecasts in the quarterly Statement on Monetary Statement (MPS). This week, Commonwealth Treasury’s latest economic forecasts will be revealed when Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, brings down the 2023-24 Budget. Both...
by Stephen Roberts | 1 May, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Government bond markets and major stock markets maintained different outlooks for the global economy in April. Bond yields sitting below current official interest rates and the inverted US bond yield curve point to recession ahead and of an order that will force...
by Stephen Roberts | 24 Apr, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
In April economic indicators showed moderating global economic growth for the most part, but with inflation still high enough to concern most central banks. China was an exception with growth gathering pace, but with low inflation. The softening in economic activity...
by Stephen Roberts | 17 Apr, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Writing about the outlook beyond the RBA’s rate pause last week we considered that the various opposing factors influencing the cash rate outlook favoured a lengthy pause at 3.60%. Our view required continuing evidence of soft growth in household spending and...
by Stephen Roberts | 11 Apr, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The RBA paused at its April policy meeting after ten consecutive interest rate hikes that cumulatively lifted the official cash rate 350 basis points from 0.10% in April 2022 to 3.60% set at the early-March 2023 policy meeting. The questions after the April 2023...
by Stephen Roberts | 3 Apr, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Government bond yields fell sharply in March reflecting a marked change in market view towards believing central banks’ official interest rates are at, or close to their peak, and will be cut two or three times over the next year. Falling bond yields are heralding...
