by Stephen Roberts | 16 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Analysts are split between whether official interest rates in most major economies, including in Australia, have peaked or need to be tweaked a little higher. The US Federal Reserve in the minutes of its last policy meeting indicated that inflation and recession risks...
by Stephen Roberts | 9 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
The cash rate remains on uneasy pause at 4.10% is the verdict after the first monetary policy meeting presided over by new RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock. Essentially the economic backdrop to the rate decision has not changed. In the words of the new Governor and...
by Stephen Roberts | 2 Oct, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Risk assets weakened again in September as central banks reaffirmed that interest rates would need to stay higher for longer. Bond markets continued to build the growing possibility that official interest rates are likely to stay at least as high as they are currently...
by Stephen Roberts | 11 Sep, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Australia is yet to breach the two consecutive quarters of GDP that defines conventionally a recession, but other indicators such as GDP per head, falling nominal GDP and weak household disposable income are all flashing recession-like. The soft components in the Q2...
by Stephen Roberts | 4 Sep, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
Risk assets weakened in August as evidence of firmer US economic activity; Europe possibly avoiding recession; and slower progress containing inflation rekindled concern that central banks have not finished hiking interest rates. China and Australia went against the...
by Stephen Roberts | 28 Aug, 2023 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts, Market Commentary
In August, progress towards lower inflation was patchier in most major economies other than in China and Australia. In China, the faltering economic recovery and excess capacity are promoting deflation. In Australia, annual inflation, although still high, fell sharply...
