Laminar’s Economist Stephen Roberts has been recognised by Bloomberg as the most accurate of 15 economists in predicting bond yields in 2015, with the year-end figure coming in two basis points away from the forecast he made 12 months earlier.
He was the most bullish for 2016 in a survey conducted at the end of the first quarter. The market is proving him right, with benchmark 10-year yields dropping to a record 2.20 percent this month. The yield was 2.27 percent as of 2:12 p.m. Monday in Sydney.
Steves’s forecast was for 1.90 percent by year-end. An investor who bought Monday would earn 4.3 percent if that is accurate, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. His projections would push Australian yields below their U.S. counterparts for the first time since 2000, based on his predictions for both markets.
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Australian Rates Can Still Come Down, Top Bond Forecaster Says – Bloomberg