Market Insights

April Economic Roundup

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Global economic readings were again mixed strength through April with positive surprises in the economic data, mostly confined to Europe and Australia. The monthly data readings from the US are consistent with GDP growth having slowed further in Q1 2015 to around 1% on an annualized basis. In China, growth has slowed in Q1 to 7.0% y-o-y and further slowing seems likely on recent monthly economic readings. European growth may have accelerated above 1% y-o-y in Q1 while Australian economic growth may have stabilized – if not improved slightly – in Q1 on the basis of still firm international trade, strong housing activity and small improvement in retail sales. Central banks remain committed to maintaining accommodating policy conditions, although the US Fed is still likely to lift its funds rate from near-zero later in the year and the outlook for when the RBA will next lower its cash rate is hazier than it seemed a month ago.

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A conundrum

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The Reserve Bank faces conflicting information relating to the strength of the Australian economy. March employment growth (+37,700) was much stronger than expected and so too was February employment growth (+41,900) after a hefty upward revision in the latest data. The unemployment rate has been on a gentle decline early in 2015 (6.3% in January down to 6.1% in March) again, against general expectations of the opposite occurring. Latest readings of job vacancies (both the ABS quarterly survey and the monthly ANZ job advertisements series), however, have taken a weaker turn, a hint that the latest strength in the labour force survey may not persist.

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Fund Update

The Fund returned 0.55% over the month of March, delivered 1.88% for the previous three months, and 8.90% over the past 12 months. The Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Fund, as at 31 March 2015, was $57.44m 2 and the redemption price was 1.345685 3. The Fund distributed... Read more...