by Stephen Roberts | Feb 24, 2015 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
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Data releases during February were a mixed bag and pointed to moderating economic growth in the US, partly severe-weather related, softer growth in China and Japan, but marginally firmer than expected growth in Europe.
Data releases during February were a mixed bag, pointing to weak economic growth in the US (partly due to the severe weather they’ve experienced throughout the month), softer growth in China and Japan, and growth in Europe which was marginally firmer than had been expected. In Australia, housing and international trade data were strong, but most other readings – including employment – took a softer turn. Inflation was very low everywhere – assisted by low energy prices – and central banks continued to respond to the low growth, low inflation world, mostly by easing monetary conditions. The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bps to a record low 2.25% at its early February policy meeting and implied, in various commentaries, that more cuts may come.
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by Stephen Roberts | Feb 16, 2015 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
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February still has the best part of a fortnight to run, but it is the first fortnight or so of March that is starting to catch our eye in terms of potentially market-moving data and possible responses by central banks. In terms of economic data, we expect a run of weaker economic readings from the US, mostly because of the unusually long and repeated periods of brutally cold and snowy weather that has affected much of the US North East. We also expect the January-February readings of retail sales, industrial production and urban fixed asset investment spending due from China on the 10th of March to be soft, heralding Q1 GDP growth below 7% y-o-y, when it is released in early April. Australian Q4 GDP, due on the 4th of March, is also likely to show comparatively soft GDP growth – around 0.5% q-o-q – but it is likely to also show, in the same data release, a third consecutive quarterly fall in real national income, highlighting how challenging it will be to lift economic growth to long-term trend in the next year or so.
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by Stephen Roberts | Feb 9, 2015 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
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