Market Insights

What to watch out for in 2015

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2015 is shaping up as a turbulent year in investment markets mostly because the global economic outlook is subject to a greater than usual set of uncertainties and risks. We see the year starting on a weak, volatile note for risk assets. The best of economic growth among developed economies is still likely to reside with the United States but headwinds are showing signs of developing that may cap US economic growth in 2015. The Federal Reserve will almost certainly start to lift its funds rate (currently close to zero) either in Q1 or Q2 2015. The US dollar also looks set to strengthen further, especially if as seems likely, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan expand their balance sheets (adopt or extend QE) as seems likely. Also, sharply falling oil prices present a two-edged sword for US growth prospects, cutting investment and jobs in the previously booming US shale oil industry, but also providing the equivalent of a hefty tax cut to US consumers and some businesses. All told, the US economy still looks set to perform well in 2015, but not as well as in the nine months extending from the end of Q1 2014 through to the end of 2014.

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Fund Update

The Fund returned 0.64% over the month of November, delivered 2.00% for the previous three months and 9.14% over the past 12 months. The Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Fund, as at 30 November 2014, was $50.9 m2 and the redemption price was 1.3617023. During the month,... Read more...

Rate view change

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We are changing our official cash rate view and now see the RBA cutting the cash rate twice, probably in March and April 2015 to 2.00%. We see the cash rate holding at 2.00% through to early 2016 before a set of modest cash rate increases taking the cash rate up to 2.75% by the end of 2016. The reasons for the change to our cash rate view are that the economic growth and inflation both look like staying more subdued than we thought likely previously through 2015. Also implementation of any of the recommendations of the Murray Financial Inquiry, although beneficial longer-term will come at short-term cost to the economy.

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