by Stephen Roberts | Aug 25, 2014 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
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Our monthly roundup of global and local economic data and events shows diverging paths for the world’s two biggest economies with the US economic expansion gaining traction, but the previously promising signs of stronger economic growth in China faltering in August. The economic position in Europe remains fragile. Geopolitical concerns relating to the Middle East eased a little although the Ukraine remains on war footing. The world’s major central banks, including the RBA, are mostly trying to support economic recovery, leaving official interest rates low for as long as possible although, when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will eventually start to lift interest rates is a key focal point for interest rate markets.
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by Stephen Roberts | Aug 18, 2014 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
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Soft Australian economic readings have predominated over the past month or two relating mostly to the months of May and June. Q2 GDP will be released early in September and, not surprisingly, it is also shaping up as a soft affair with overall growth no better than about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) compared with 1.1% q-o-q in Q1 2014. Beyond the soft Q2 GDP reading in immediate prospect, there is a promise in the latest business and consumer sentiment surveys, as well as in the persistent lift in housing activity, of better growth in Q3.
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by Stephen Roberts | Aug 11, 2014 | Economic Weekly, Laminar Economist Stephen Roberts
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We are pushing out our forecast of the first 25bp cash rate hike by the RBA to November 2015 from March 2015. We make the change taking account of the weaker than expected July labour force report and the changes to the RBA’s economic forecasts contained in its Monetary Policy Statement released last Friday.
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